What Is The Political Makeup Of Gainesville
Fourth in a series on swing states
There is one constant in Florida politics: Its elections will be close. Slightly more than 15 meg people lived in the land in 2000, when Florida'southward votes decided the presidential election. Close to 22 million people volition live in the land by November, and they've come from everywhere — retirees from the Midwest, tax exiles from the Northeast, Puerto Ricans settling down in Orlando.
When they make it, Floridians settle into one of 10 media markets roofing very different political cultures. None of it has altered the competitiveness of the state. Blueish Florida has gotten bluer, with suburbanites moving abroad from the GOP; reddish Florida has gotten redder, with bourgeois Democrats who stayed with the party for decades finally making the switch.
In that mix are hundreds of thousands of potential voters who take not still registered, or whose voting rights are locked up in a courtroom. Nearly 10 million votes were cast in the 2016 ballot, and the path to victory — 5 one thousand thousand votes or so — could exist paved by converting voters and by calculation new ones to the rolls. President Trump did both in 2016, calculation 454,439 votes to Manus Romney'south 2012 total.
Different she did in the Midwest, Hillary Clinton really improved on Barack Obama's numbers here, by 341,528 votes. Just Trump simply outran her by picking up new white voters, dynamiting Democratic hopes that the various state would exist hostile to him. Four years later, Trump has turned Mar-a-Lago into a privately profitable "southern White House," and the gunkhole parades in the state'southward reddest areas are touted by his campaign as sign that the media is lying about his strength.
Florida'south many media markets can drain more cash than any other swing land. Near of the state's electorate lives in but four of those markets — South Florida around Miami and Fort Lauderdale, the Orlando area, the Tampa Bay area, and the Jacksonville surface area, which virtually hosted the Republican National Convention. Just the power of Trump'southward 2016 campaign was in turning out new voters in places such every bit Fort Myers, Naples and Melbourne, Republican-friendly areas where Clinton was toxic.
A question for Trump this twelvemonth: How many more votes can he find? Republicans have added 314,941 new voters to the party'south rolls since November 2016. Democrats added just 227,961 new voters, with their registration drive taking a pandemic-driven hit for a longer menses of time than the GOP'southward. Even a marked improvement for Democrats with Black turnout or suburban white voters could be outpaced by turnout from white voters without higher degrees — if the GOP can notice them.
To brand sense of this, and why very different vote patterns take led to such similarly narrow results, we've divided Florida into six political "states." The biggest cities in Florida have, as in other states, go even friendlier to Democrats — something yous can run across from South Florida to the Interstate 4 corridor to Jacksonville. Simply there are reliably red cities, suburbs and rural counties growing simply as fast, and they're more than comfortable with Trump than they've been with any Republican nominee.
This is the fourth in a series breaking downward the key swing states of 2020, showing how balloter trends played out over the past few years and where the shift in votes actually mattered. Run into all 50 states here.
Jax
For a few weeks this summer, Florida's biggest urban center was set to host the Republican National Convention. That could have been a boon to Jacksonville, which constitutes nearly of Duval Canton and has miles of beaches that don't always annul the jokes people make nearly the city. It's one of the biggest urban areas in America with a Republican mayor, but Democrats have begun to bear Duval County in close statewide races.
The rest of the region runs deep red, with some pockets of Autonomous forcefulness in cities, such as St. Augustine. Trump ran behind Romney in that area, function of St. Johns County, just he added votes in rural areas farther from Jacksonville, which the political party has cultivated ever since.
2016 vote totals
- Donald Trump: 489,423
- Hillary Clinton: 325,599
Counties included: Baker, Bradford, Clay, Duval, Flagler, Nassau, Putnam, St. Johns, Union
I-4
Florida's fastest growth for years has happened forth this coast-to-coast belt of cities and suburbs. It became the bellwether in presidential elections, as the centre-class suburban vote that lifted George W. Bush broke for Obama. Early on ballot dark 2016, Clinton's force in Tampa's Hillsborough County and Orlando's Orange County lifted her to an early on lead over Trump.
But Trump didn't need to win the I-iv corridor. Orange County is now 1 of the state's deep blue strongholds, breaking for Clinton by 25 points and repeating that performance for Democrats in the midterms. The Tampa Bay counties of Hillsborough and Pinellas besides break for Democrats in shut races and have added tens of thousands of new voters since 2016.
One part of the region has gotten redder: Volusia Canton. Carried by Democrats from 2000 through 2008, information technology has flipped as Daytona Embankment and its surrounding towns move to the right; in 2018, its local congressman Ron DeSantis got elected governor, despite losing the rest of the I-4 corridor handily. In November, Trump could lose Florida's well-nigh famous swing region by 200,000 votes but still hold on to the state.
2016 vote totals
- Donald Trump: 1,161,890
- Hillary Clinton: 1,289,679
Counties included: Hillsborough, Orange, Osceola, Pinellas, Polk, Seminole, Volusia
Red Southward
The Republican heartland of Florida also spreads from the Atlantic declension to the Gulf, covering some of the aforementioned media markets every bit the I-4 corridor. It merely doesn't vote the same way. The towns that run from Manatee Canton to the Keys are whiter and mostly wealthier than the rest of the state; Sen. Rick Scott launched his political career from a multimillion-dollar home in Naples that includes its own boathouse.
Some of the cities closest to Tampa Bay got more Democratic in 2016 and 2018. The rest of the region got more Republican. Brevard County, the heart of the "infinite coast," gave Trump a 19-point margin, the all-time for whatsoever Republican candidate since 1988. The president personally attended the SpaceX launch in Cape Canaveral this twelvemonth and has occasionally talked up long-term plans for space exploration afterward an austere approach to this in the Bush-league and Obama years.
2016 vote totals
- Donald Trump: 1,019,825
- Hillary Clinton: 683,976
Counties included: Brevard, Charlotte, Collier, DeSoto, Glades, Hardee, Hendry, Highlands, Indian River, Lee, Manatee, Martin, Monroe, Okeechobee, Sarasota, St. Lucie
South Florida
Florida Democrats have grown more and more dominant in the megacity that runs from Palm Beach in the northward to the Florida Keys in the southward. Clinton set a record for the party'southward turnout and win margin in presidential elections, winning the region by a nearly ii-to-1 margin — enough to keep the statewide race razor-thin. Fifty-fifty Cuban Americans, a bulwark of Republican support in the region, were up for grabs.
Democrats at present need a landslide in South Florida to win the state, every bit Andrew Gillum learned in his 2018 gubernatorial loss. He netted 167,377 votes from Miami-Dade County; Hillary Clinton had won the county by a 290,147-vote margin. What happened? Ron DeSantis picked a Cuban American running mate, Jeanette Núñez, and drilled Gillum over his brotherhood with Bernie Sanders and the Dream Defenders, a left-wing Black Lives Matter offshoot that the Republicans linked to socialism and boycotts of Israel.
That blew a pigsty in a coalition that otherwise came close to winning the state. Southward Florida Democrats had been nervous nigh Sanders, fearful that his comprehend of democratic socialism and measured praise for Cuban communism would make the political party toxic in the Miami area. Tellingly, while Sanders won Latino voters in most primaries, he was flattened in South Florida. Since winning the nomination, Joe Biden has run ads in the Miami market — and only the Miami market — that are narrated in Spanish and compares the president to Key American dictators.
2016 vote totals
- Donald Trump: 867,417
- Hillary Clinton: 1,551,829
Counties included: Broward, Miami-Dade, Palm Beach
The Panhandle
Lightly populated and deeply conservative, the Panhandle starts where Alabama ends and tapers out east of Tallahassee. Florida'south capital city sits in Leon County; that and neighboring majority-Black Gadsden County are now the only parts of the Panhandle that reliably vote for Democrats.
The residuum of the region gets redder in every election; fifty-fifty former senator Bill Nelson's resilience here came autonomously in his terminal race two years ago. Merely Democrats expect to lose the Panhandle and make up those losses in the balance of the state. They would need to; Republicans have registered tens of thousands of new voters hither while losing a little basis to Democrats in Leon Canton. It didn't help Democrats when sometime Tallahassee mayor Andrew Gillum, the party'southward 2018 nominee for governor, abased a voter registration entrada to deal with personal problems, stopping an ambitious plan to add one million Florida Democrats to the rolls.
2016 vote totals
- Donald Trump: 447,848
- Hillary Clinton: 263,902
Counties included: Bay, Calhoun, Escambia, Franklin, Gadsden, Gulf, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Leon, Liberty, Madison, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Taylor, Wakulla, Walton, Washington
North Key
Trump'due south 2016 forcefulness in Republican South Florida was a return to the party'south usual performance, comparable to the margins George Due west. Bush-league won there. The stretch of Florida from the Georgia edge to Tampa Bay was something else. Here, Trump created a Republican fortress, converting white voters who had held fast to the Autonomous Party for a century.
In only ane place, Gainesville's Alachua County, did Clinton do better than recent Democratic nominees. The Academy of Florida and its suburbs moved to the left every bit most like areas did subsequently 2016. The rest of the region was a Trump rout, with the nominee putting upward some of the near lopsided numbers of any Republican candidate for president. (Trump's 21-point landslide in Pasco Canton was simply a hair off the margin in Ronald Reagan's landslide 1984 reelection.)
Much of this came down to Republican growth along the Gulf Coast and the continued migration toward the GOP past white voters without higher degrees. In Sumter County, home to the Villages retirement community, Trump gained 12,000 votes over Romney; Clinton improved on Obama by 3,000 votes. Clinton as well added votes in Manatee and Sarasota counties, conservative suburbs around Tampa Bay that accept seen a little of the movement of other states' exurbs.
2016 vote totals
- Donald Trump: 632,237
- Hillary Clinton: 390,095
Counties included: Alachua, Citrus, Columbia, Dixie, Gilchrist, Hamilton, Hernando, Lafayette, Lake, Levy, Marion, Pasco, Sumter, Suwannee
Source: https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/politics/florida-political-geography/
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